What Next For Iran?

 If the U.S. and Israel succeed in the announced goal of ousting the Islamic regime, what will happen is Iran will break up. The Kurds will seize control of a region, and the Baluchis will seize another area, and declare their own nations.

The only way that could be prevented is by a U.S. ground invasion. Otherwise there is no armed force on the ground to prevent that if the regime is destroyed.

The U.S. plan, in an idiotic echo of the Bush regime scheme to impose Ahmed Chalabi on the Iraqi people, is to make the son of the late and hated dictator Shah of Iran the new ruler of Iran. But what men with guns will back him on the ground? He will need the U.S. army (and Marines and Navy SEAL terrorists, who will want in on the murderous "action") to put and keep him in power in Iran. The Voice of America is broadcasting Son of Shah's propaganda (in Farsi) into Iran. As if anyone there is listening, or would be inspired by his guff.

Breaking Iran into pieces is most likely what Israel would like best.This would mean three smaller, weaker countries in place of Iran. Israel is fanatically intent on being the regional hegemon, with the other states and people prostrate and helpless at its feet.

But since the only armed forces in Iran are tightly aligned with the regime, it seems unlikely that the regime CAN be toppled, not without an ARMED opposition. Apparently the CIA and Mossad haven't figured out a way to smuggle large numbers of arms into Iran without getting caught, and training up Iranian civilians in their use, and organizing them into people's militias. Absent that, the U.S. will have to invade the country to oust the mullahs from power. 

As an atheist, and a human to whom human rights are important, the Iranian regime is loathsome. Just as the regimes of such U.S. allies as Saudi Arabia, a repressive, vicious theocracy, is loathsome.

But let's remember how we got here. President Dwight David Eisenhower ordered a CIA coup in 1953 that destroyed democracy in Irao. The following year he ordered the same in Guatemala. In both nations the result was about a quarter million murders by the regimes. Iran had a revolution in 1979 which brought the current theocratic tyranny to power. Guatemala is still a death squad, fascist state, but with fewer death squad murders than in the past.The U.S. finds indigenous fascist forces and oligarchs to use to create its preferred fascist states.

Israel assassinated the Ayatollah, Khamenei, on the idiotic premise that this would cause the collapse of the regime. The mullahs are not dependent on him. He was 86 anyway. The regime didn't collapse when Khomeini, the first Ayatollah who took power in 1979, died. Just as the Israeli government wouldn't collapse if Netanyahu got his just desserts and was assassinated, or the U.S. government collapse if Trump was eliminated. Israel's and the U.S.' behavior drag the world down into a more barbarous state. Of course both these nations have horrible histories of many crimes, but one hopes for progress, not regression. 

One more thing: Trump is pretending he wants to free the Iranian people. Of course that is bullshit. He is a self-centered narcissist who could give a rat's ass about the Iranians. Here's a hint to how much the U.S. cares about Iranians: either the U.S. or Israel bombed a girls' school during the during the current aggression- on the very first day. They slaughtered 153 people (according to the Iranian foreign ministry). Not a peep in U.S. media, and whichever nation did it, it's accomplice in naked aggression didn't condemn it or even say don't do that sort of thing again.

The U.S. doesn't care about the Iranian people any more than it did in 1953. And Israel wants to break Iran into pieces. It wants all other nations in the Middle East to be as weak as possible, so it can be a regional hegemon until the end of time.

A demented fantasy every bit as psychotic as the Third Reich's was.